Is Forex the right market?

This is a question a fellow trader asked mmany years ago after I switched to trading forex from trading equities and indices.

I was sure I was doing the right thing at the time but it’s looking increasingly like I and many other under-performing traders may have picked the wrong market.

For a neutral perspective on this question, take a look at the backtesting done on algorithmic strategies by The Transparent Trader on Youtube. His latest clip demonstrates that

  1. long-term trend-following will not work in forex.
  2. long-term reversion strategies will work in forex but only if you can trade all 28 leading pairs simultaneously and continuously
  3. intra-day strategies of both these types will work in forex but not consistently on any pair over an extended period and you will not be able to identfy which pairs will work best or for longest.

It’s the most frightening trading research I’ve seen. At least, the most frightening since his earlier research.

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Yes, very much in line with the conclusions I came to.

What isn’t really talked about in trading circles is the political and commercial influences on fiat currencies. Govts and businesses want stable exchange rates, i.e. reduced volatility = no strong long term trends on fiat crosses.

This lower volatility also means that traders need leverage (=higher risks and costs) in order to make a comparable return to stocks, equities, commodities etc.

Forex does work for shorter term traders but there are much better options for those of us who prefer a slower pace.

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I’ve always preferred the Dax, myself. :wink:

Though I’m very, very skeptical about You tube “traders,” myself, I’ve certainly seen a few people recommending Jarrod Goodwin’s channel here and in other forums.

As well as a lot of experienced Babypips members recommending futures, and I think particularly index futures, rather than forex CFDs.

Interesting, thanks for starting this conversation.

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I see that your ego was hurt so badly that you decided

I agree. That’s what I have been intuitively feeling for a long time now. That’s why I came up with my latest strategy that does them both and uses 27 pairs for maximum diversification (excl. gbpnzd) + frequent re-optimization.
That’s why I feel that it’s worth keeping up with.
Anyway, with all the countless backtesting I have done, I don’t see how equity or index trading can beat forex. The only profitable stock trading strategy that I could come up with is really slow paced (based on my investing strategy). Anything fast only showed failure.

It just reminds me how messy forex can be. You think you’ve got a strategy and then it doesn’t work like you expect.

I’ve seen multiple thorough backtests done on the Youtube channel I referred to, and so many times, a strategy is tested across multiple forex pairs and it works on some but not all. And there is no way of predicting which pairs it works on. Not only that, but the strategy then starts to fail on those pairs while starting to succeed on previously unprofitable pairs - and again there is nothing in the charts or the currency characteristics that would identify those inflexion points.

There are some clever clever strategies that work on most pairs most of the time, but there is no way to select which pairs they are or why those strategies are working and therefore why they start to not work.

If you can trade 27 or 28 pairs simultaneously, you will make money. But for the casual, there’s no hope.

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This sounds exactly right, to me.

No long-term, statistically reliable hope, anyway.

I think the odds will always be against you, if you choose some small number of FX pairs.

I’m not kidding about indices being better. IMHO.

I like to trade the Dax when it’s open., in Frankfurt. My own hours vary, and if I want to trade after the Frankfurt close, I’ll trade a US index instead of the Dax.

I think it’s WAY easier and better and safer and I just don’t understand why more people don’t do it. Or maybe they do, but they keep quiet about it?

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My biggest ever win was a cluster of pyramided longs on the US indices. Indices trend - specifically they uptrend - most of the time.

I don’t think the brokerage insustry see a lot of gain for them if people start tracking the Dow etc. long-term so they it’s understandable they certainly keep quiet about it.

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Very good point. I had not really thought about it that way.

I trade the Dax by using CFD’s, but for the American ones I normally trade the MES (micro S&P futures, only $1.25 per lot per tick).

You do spreadbetting, is that right? I think we don’t have that available here.

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Yes, it’s spreadbetting for me. It’s regulated and legal in the UK and profits are exempt from tax.

Margin requirements are same as for CFD’s, but their profits are taxable. SB spreads are wider than CFD spreads but that only makes a difference if intensively trading intra-day.

Which is of course what the brokers want us to do, since they make a lot of profit on that route.

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Yes, the more we trade, the more the brokers make.

The tax thing is huge. That’s like a big additional edge? I’m in a relatively low tax country but we have to declare and pay tax on trading profits (after deducting losses and a couple of tiny expenses like internet and maybe a daily newspaper for info.).

I know that most CFD brokers really want their customers to lose, but probably gradually, not to get wiped out, i.e. to make slow net losses but keep trading.

I think futures brokers (though they definitely still prefer active, frequent traders, of course) do genuinely want their customers to win, not to lose. Even if only because they keep them, that way.

I must say I’m WAY more comfortable with futures. I keep meaning to look into Dax futures rather than the CFDs for my “German ones”.

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Many years ago I traded forex, then in more recent years I switched to Dax then included Nasdaq and Dow. But this year it’s like hell has been unleashed or is it just me? My normal system is just not coming up with such good trades and I am guilty of forcing trades. Last year my average was about 70% strike rate and 80pts+ week. Now luckily I’ve only demo traded as I am in Cambodia and internet can be a bit dodgy but thank god, because my demo trading has been awful for multiple reasons. Yes, and I do think the markets have been very difficult - including geopolitical chaos.

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I do look back on my trades - I’m a 5min/1min day trader, there used to be many lovely little trends. Okay sometimes it is me joining the party too late, like not paying attention, but many times I see the perfect set up only for it to go bang against me, like my entry has for no reason suddenly become a support or resistance!

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Lok at this - you see a lot of this is me - a big part of my stategy are daily pivots
R1 to R2 on Dow 15.30 uk

167 points !

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Not just you.

I’m sure my experience is terribly limited, compared with yours. I’m guessing about yours from the year in your username and your nearly 6 year membership here.

I’ve traded seriously/profitably only since Sept 2023, so exactly 2 years.

During each of those 2 one-year periods (I work in “academic years” lol) I’ve averaged +3% per month. But the second year I worked 50% longer hours to do it. And for the first year my +3% monthly average was formed from a low of about 0% and a high of about 6% but in the second year my worst was -3% and my best +9%, so the variability was twice as bad as well as the trading being 50% more hours work.

Statistically, this is very, very significant.

Especially for no net improvement at all!

I don’t trade forex, though. Only indices.

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This is how psychology effects traders - to be honest I am going through some kind of depressive breakdown and shouldn’t even be thinking of trading, to day I over traded, and lost big time - missed easy 167pts on Dow. Yesterday I managed to turn a lovely start of 47pts intio a loss of 150pts, a couple of small losses and I went into revenge trading mode. I can blame geopolitical chaos, but there is more chaos in my head.
PS the date in my user name is NOT my date of birth, just a significant date! My date of birth is 1948 yes work it out - I should have packed it in years ago - believe me you don’t get better with age, getting old is bloody dreadful! :rofl: I need a psychologist!

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I’m dismayed to hear that, Johnny!! Take a break from trading, please, but keep us updated on your wellbeing!

Best wishes!

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Thank you - I am only demo trading at the moment. You are right I need a break - I did used to be quite good but I was quite good at many things.
My fathers dying words - “Don’t commit the crime of getting old, it’s bloody dreadful”

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A stark contrast to the saying “Youth is wasted on the young” (which it truly is!)

(George Bernard Shaw)

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Hi @tommor, interesting observation.
Although there are many varying components why this or that market does or does not trade well, my own experience over the years came to the same conclusion, I would say, about 10 years ago.

My trading background started as a trader in an international bank FX dealing room. Inevitably, this meant working primarily with currencies in spot, forwards, and futures markets.

Business was primarily based on customer currency requirements, funding foreign currency commercial loans and the bank’s own exposures. Private trading was not allowed.

Later, after moving to a non-banking employment, I started trading for myself and initially followed the same patterns and procedures that I had already absorbed from my bank days.

However, it was not long before I realised that there was little similarity between the world of institutional functioning in the FX market and my own tiny microcosm of a few pips in a few hours with a tight SL constraint on getting it right often enough to make it all worthwhile! :grinning:

So I moved to commodities, specifically USOil, and that was a much improved environment. All nations use oil and most buy it in USD and the associated geopolitical events were both interesting and well-documented.

But it was not long before oil prices were tending to follow just economic issues such as Trumps previous trade wars with China for example. And I found that I was watching the SP500 in order to decide my trades in Oil. So it was a logical step to move over entirely to SP500.

So I did that - and I have never looked back since (except for a brief digression to Bitcoin, but that is so boring!). The SP500 moves far and fast, making it viable for shorter timeframes, and it is based on a broad coverage of the overall health and direction of the US economy.

It is also a big market for major pension and investment funds as well as wealthy individual and so the longer term charts give a good and accurate indication of their longer term activities as well as the underlying direction of the market.

The indices markets are based on both concrete changes in economic health as well as sentiment-driven interpretation of current issues. And underlying all that is the need for a huge amount of funds to be placed somewhere

But it is not wise to assume that indices are simply a “buy and hold and make lots of money” type market. Sure, the value may move up over the years, but there are also long periods of stagnation and reversal that would create large drawdowns and years of waiting for a recovery. Who wants to wait 2-5 years in order to get back to profit - even if they can theoretically sit through the interim drawdown?

But roller-coasters are not always just long-term either. Just look at the drop in US markets immediately following Trumps “Liberation Day” tariffs - and the subsequent successive number of ATH’s that followed that…

But, in general, I think indices are easier to analyse, have greater follow-through, and are supported by a constant source of funds looking for a home - and offer a chunky reward for effort even on the smaller, intraday, timeframes.

I don’t do back-testing. Markets change over time and what fitted in the past does not necessarily fit in the future. And. anyway, it is not really possible to back-test PA accurately, where interpretation is as much an art as a science and it is impossible to automate where one’s levels would have been and how one would have reacted at that time - and with what size position, etc. I prefer evolvement through forward- testing and adapting with the current weather formations. Isn’t that, afterall, where the fun and interest lies in trading? Following and living what is going on in the world today and how the markets are reacting now and what might follow tomorrow?

Funny how I find the same thing in driving. All I seem to hear and read nowadays is how cars are more and more automated and doing everything for you including braking and lane control. Even getting my car out of the garage is accompanied by a cacophany of peeps and buzzes and coloured lights as the warning sensors and cameras follow the outline of the walls and objects!

But I like driving!!! I don’t want my car to tell me what to do and when and even do it for me! I don’t want cruise controls and other comforts - I want to drive my car myself because I enjoy doing so - and it is the same with trading. I want to make my decisions based on my own interpretion of what is going on now and what might happen next. I don’t want to be tied by what happened last time in similar circumstances two years ago, etc. This world is changing fast and radically. The past is becoming progressively irrelevant as these changes develop and close in on our markets.

However, this is not to say that trading indices is easy. Getting it wrong is expensive and SL levels have to give generous allowance for noise and there is extra need for placing special emphasis on getting in at a good level.

But, as usual, this is just my way. We all need to define what we are looking for, how we want to find it, and what tools we are going to need.

Long live indices. :grinning:

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